MOVING TOWARDS THE POST-CARBON ERA?

To be truly radical is to make hope possible, rather than despair convincing.

Raymond Williams [1]

(This article draws heavily on work by Richard Heinberg and Rob Hopkins. Each is cited at its end.)

The current state of the world rests on access to relatively cheap energy produced from fossil fuels - oil, coal and gas. Coal, oil and gas have powered the creation of levels of wealth unprecedented in human history. However, this wealth has benefited just a few at the expense of humanity as a whole; and its creation continues to be accompanied by the destruction of natural habitats and changes to the planet's climate.

While the last century was marked by unprecedented growth in population, consumption and technological innovation based on cheap energy, this century will be marked by unprecedented decline in access to energy. There is evidence that global oil production has reached its maximum and started its inevitable decline. Forecasts for natural gas extraction rates in the North Sea, North America and Russia are dismal; and new studies suggest that global coal extraction will peak in about fifteen years. This will cause declines in consumption and innovation, accompanied by catastrophic weather events and rising sea levels.

This 'doomsday' scenario reflects the world's reliance on cheap energy and, therefore, its vulnerability even to disruption - let alone decline - in its supply. Economic globalisation has relied on cheap energy from fossil fuels and no current alternative source can match the scale of our current energy use. As things stand, a decline in the supply of energy will lead to a decline in consumption that would pose a greater systemic threat to the world's economies that the current 'global financial crisis'. Worse still, without immediate action to stem carbon emissions, such an economic implosion will coincide with a 'tipping point' beyond which climate change becomes irreversible. As Richard Heinberg has argued:

Depletion and climate issues converge to make deliberate, co-operative transition away from fossil fuels the centrepiece of our human survival strategy for the remainder of the 21st century. [2]

The combination of declining energy and climate change make it imperative that we start now to wean ourselves from dependence on fossil fuels. Immediate action offers the chance that we can move from an economy and society that is based on carbon to a 'post-carbon' era. However, despite the immediate threat, most governments have been slow to respond, concentrating instead on balancing the vested interests in the status quo. In these circumstances, the concerned citizen can - in that old phrase - act locally. Economic re-localisation will be an inevitable consequence of the decline in cheap energy and, therefore, cheap transport. Since we will have to produce more of our necessities locally anyway, why not make a virtue of necessity and devise an energy transition strategy with local communities at its heart? A move towards local, energy-efficient production isn't a 'lifestyle' choice - it's a necessity. However, by being proactive, rather than reactive, we can shape our future. Rob Hopkins is enthusiastic about the prospects:

Rebuilding local agriculture and food production, localising energy production, rethinking healthcare, rediscovering local building materials in the context of zero energy building, rethinking how we manage waste, all build resilience and offer the potential of an extraordinary renaissance - economic, cultural and spiritual. [3]

1. Cited by Chris Richards in New Internationalist Magazine (Issue 352. December 2002).
2. Heinberg, R. (2008) 'Forward' to Hopkins, R. The Transition Handbook: from oil dependency to local resilience. Totnes: Green Books Ltd. (pp. 8 - 10)
3. Hopkins, R. (2008) The Transition Handbook: from oil dependency to local resilience. Totnes: Green Books Ltd. (p. 15)